Weather measurement in either a forensic nature (from soil or plants) as well as just recorded means we have centuries of climate measurement data to work from. This cannot be a stochastic variation, it has to be a clear indication of the world to come where we have set the 1.5 degrees ceiling as being an absolute condition past which the existence of mankind, species (land, sea and air) and plant life could be irretrievably damaged or destroyed.
This is an existential moment to plan for a world of ten years from now where know what might happen, but we still have a choice about how we handle it. It also presents a maybe once in a lifetime (of mankind) opportunity for a whole new set of business models. 75% of global emissions are associated with energy production and consumption. If you are in business, then you have the direct capability and responsibility to reduce that impact and get us away from the 1.5C barrier we are trying to avoid as a planet.
The idea of de carbonizing value chains is not new. However, the responsibility to lean in and lead now is essential. It is very easy to not believe that we can each make a difference, but we can with these simple and connected steps.
The financial markets often indicate the future. For the first time (half one 2023) we saw $350bn in energy bonds for renewables beat the traditional energy market bonds of $250bn Bloomberg believes that the value of carbon credits while only worth $2bn in 2023, could easily reach $50bn in 2030 and could be $1tr by 2040. The size of multiple European economies.
Step One: Accept the need to react to the unstable future
Recognize that you will need to have a flexible strategy because we are not moving from one period of stable to another. We are going to move (not just to era of boiling, but an inherently, more un-stable set of climate conditions that there will be large and maybe unpredictable swings. We have seen un precedented heat domes across the US and Europe. Imagine having to more effectively manage to this with employees, key supply chain partners and even sudden peaks in customer’s demand. CEO’s need to build inherently flexible strategies to handle this. Managing to and with climate change as a planning concept needs to be the norm and not the exception.
The ability to evolve targets, actions and even options as climate changes is key. Corporations like Walmart, Meta,, Salesforce and others are part of the Zero grid alliance designed to bring whole ecosystems into alignment.
Step Two: See risks and transitions as a competitive advantage.
Government policies will continue to change. Things like water availability, new flooding zones, dry lands, forest fires and even pressures on how communities are built should be talked about and planned for. Maybe the best example of this is the work we see from Alphabet and Microsoft on the use of renewable energy. Alphabet has been a net producer of its own energy since 2017. Microsoft should be the same by 2025. If you are not thinking about gaining this level of control over your future energy needs imagine how much of a disadvantage you might have against competitors that have handled this challenge head on now. It is multi-dimensional, so it needs a heuristic and comprehensive approach.
Step Three Have an energy strategy and retire high emitting assets.
Renewable energy will have an increasing presence as an energy source. The ability to shift away from traditional carbon emitting energy sources is a genuine choice we should be consciously making right now. It’s not just the retirement of high emitting assets, its also the ability to dig deeper into your supply chain and make sure those partners and assets are on the same journey. Volvo for example is helping to fund the shift in their ocean shipping to renewable energy. Automotive vendors are increasing seeing multiple stages in their operations able to significantly contribute to positive changes in their operations. This covers everything from the design to the development, deployment and ongoing operations of automotives. That’s a complex connected ecosystem but all the major automotive OEM’s this this connected strategy to retire all high emitting assets as critical. Unliever is rotating new energy sources into their systems as a strategy. Johnson and Johnson is looking at the full lifecycle of their plastics.
The idea of direct electrification in the building will be become common. Producing a comprehensive audit of high emitting assets for the organization and its suppliers is a key first step. Evaluate the risks and opportunities to change and adapt (some forms of renewable are not available in all organizations.
Know your emissions and the total requirements and how much energy they will need in the short and the long terms. Recent work by McKinsey on Vodaphone in the UK illustrates what the economic power can be to re engineering power consumption for a major telecommunications vendor.
Step Four Get support driven down from the top
We have a significant shift in the attitudes of working populations. Somewhat triggered by Gen X, but ten years from now the Gen Z population will dominate workforces. The CEO has to be the advocate for these changes in order to drive the associated changes in thinking and actions through the organization. In time this intent will meet the over powering force of Gen Z and Gen X taking over the core of the working world. Right now the power to drive that change comes from the C suite and boomer populations running the largest corporations. We need to accelerate the change to the next generation’s leadership.
Step Five Engage the whole organization – constantly
Every decision we each make through the organization will matter from energy consumption, how suppliers work with you to adjust together through to how you talk with and to customers, employees and the communities your company lives and works inside
Step Six: Measure everything and do not limit what you measure
This is an evolving world where the things we measure will evolve. The more we measure the more we understand progress (large and small) and the more we can move across to more exotic measures that will be new and different.
Step Seven: Tell the story constantly
There are a lot of moving parts in this (like a clock), but the signal (like the face of the clock) needs to be constantly seen, talked about, celebrated and examined through the whole organization.
Mitre has a core list with the US academies to develop a training process –
CEO engage the whole organization – Support from the top and great for recruiting.
The Federal government is increasing offering programs and investments ($600bn+) to the commercial market. It’s a complex navigation process and Mitre corporation is a non profit looking to bridge that gap and connect organizations into the vast array of applied scientific research and national laboratory information and best practices information to get these seven steps into practice fast.
Ideas like cooling as a service could be a future business model that presents itself because of these changes…
Dr. Jeff Arnold is the first Chief Scientist for Climate and Environmental Sciences at MITRE Corporation, a nonprofit business with more than 9000 employees doing applied science and engineering research solely in the public interest. MITRE works in its internal engineering labs, with its university and private-sector partners around the world, and as the administrator of six federally funded research and development centers to solve problems for U.S. government agencies. Jeff initiated and leads development of the new MITRE | ADAPT™ modular platform of networked observational data, model-projected future conditions, and quantitative insights produced with assured artificial intelligence methods and other data science tools to support decision-makers taking action to reduce the causes of climate change and adapt to its unavoidable impacts.
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