Russia’s strategic drone assault on Ukraine is has reached a new intensity. Attacks which were rising gradually through 2024 but have spiked dramatically, with over 1300 Shahed long-range drones reported in September, far higher than any previous month. This is the first month that drone attacks have been recorded every single day, as the details painstakingly compiled by ShahedTracker show. While most drones are shot down, some get through and cause significant damage.
Although Ukraine reports all these drones simply as as ‘Shaheds’ there are increasing signs that the Iranian-designed Shahed are being supplemented by at least three other types, some reportedly supplied directly by China.
These attacks are of critical strategic importance. Ukraine’s power infrastructure is already severely damaged. As the Washington Post noted this week: “The best-case scenario is just four hours of power cuts a day, but it could also end up being 20 hours of darkness or more a day in the depths of Ukraine’s frigid winter.”
If the attacks continue at this increased level through the winter they could have a major impact on Ukraine’s economy and morale. What weapons is Russia bringing to bear in this long-range bombardment?
Shahed: Iranian Drones Now Made in Russia
The mainstay of the assault is the Shahed-136, known in Russia as Geran-2 (“Geranium-2”). The Shahed-136 is a one-way attack drone developed by Iran, with a seven-foot wingspan, a warhead of around 100 pounds and a range in excess of 600 miles. A propeller engine with 115 mph cruising speed means the Shahed is slower, less powerful and easier to shoot down than traditional cruise missiles, but it costs much less and can be produced at scale. Russia makes Shaheds in a giant new factory in Alabuga with cheap labor — students drafted in from a nearby technical college and workers brought in from Africa.
We have seen several modifications from the basic Shahed. New versions have at least three types of warhead, and some carry 4G cell modems which communicate via the Ukrainian cellphone network; more recently a Shahed was found with Starlink communications. Black, supposedly radar-absorbing coating, probably to make them less visible at night is now standard.
Earlier waves of Shaheds came in at very low level, now with the prevalence of mobile air defence groups they approach at high altitude until they reach their target, so they can only be brought down by expensive missiles or by aircraft and helicopters.
According to an estimate in the Wall Street Journal, Russia aims to produce 500 Shaheds per month. The numbers of drones now being launched suggest other types are now involved.
Italmas: Drones From The Shopping Mall
As we reported in August 2023, the tenants were evicted from the Italmas shopping mall, 700 miles east of Moscow when the Aersocan company acquired it as a drone factory. The factory is for a new model, Izdelie 54 (‘Product 54’) described a loitering munition with a range of over 200 kilometers. Product 52 and Product 53 from Aersocan subsidiary ZALA are two versions of the highly successful Lancet tactical kamikaze drone, while Product 55 is a ‘jam-proof’ kamikaze FPV.
Product-54 was seen in the background of TV news footage when Putin visited an Aersocan facility in September 2023. It has a delta-wing layout similar to the Shahed.
Towards the end of 2023 Russian media reported the new drones in action though this was not confirmed. The drones were described as being smaller than the familiar Shaheds, and their engine makes a different noise; this was identified at Product-54 and has been given the nickname Italmas. Others call them ‘lawnmowers’ from the engine sound, to distinguish them from Shaheds, which are called ‘mopeds’.
The Italmas has a DLE 60-type engine, a popular 60 cc engine for hobby drones from Chinese makers DLE engines. This delivers a fraction of the power of the Shahed’s MD550 engine, reinforcing the impression that Italmas is a lighter, cheaper drone with a small warhead, thrown in to add to the numbers and confuse defenders.
Gerbera: Shahed’s Little Sister
Images of another new Russian drone appeared on social media sites in July. This is also smaller than the Shahed and as a different configuration with a conventional tail.
A Russian unit called Stalin’s Falcons posted further details in a video later that month. They say the new drone is called Gerbera (another flower), and can carry out reconnaissance or decoy missions in addition to kamikaze attacks. Gerbera has a camera in its nose, and the video shows it can be guided visually to the target. A captured unit also had a SIM card and modem, so in theory it could be guided from long range via the cellphone network. It is a product of the Gastello Design Bureau, rather than any of the majors; the name ‘Gastello,’ from a famous Soviet pilot, was previously used for a Russian FPV which may be from the same makers.
Gerbera is described as Shahed’s ‘little sister’, again implying a smaller payload. Further details such as warhead and range are unknown, but given that a Gerbera was brought down outside Kyiv it can travel several hundred kilometers at least. Ukrainian sources suggest that Gerberas main role is as a decoy.
The Garpiya-3: Made In China
The most alarming new drone is the Garpiya-3 (“Harpy-3”). According to a report in Reuters, the Garpiya-3 was designed by a subsidiary of Russian state-owned weapons company Almaz-Antey and has a range of about 2,000 km / 1200 miles with a warhead of 50 kilos / 110 lbs .
According to Reuters, Garpiya-3 does not just use Chinese components but will be produced “at scale at a factory in China.”
We already knew that China made Shahed-type attack drones. A video from September 2023 shows the test of a Chinese Sunflower-200 drone – another flower name, and apparently a straight copy of the Shahed. One Chinese company even briefly offered another Shahed clone in the Ali Baba online marketplace. Officially sold for ‘surveying, mapping, inspection’ the $57,000 XHZ-50 with its 50 kilo / 110-pound payload offered strategic attack capability for the price of an SUV.
If China actually uses its industrial drone capacity to supply Russia with strategic weapons, then the number of drones will be limited only by Russia’s ability to pay for them. Reuters have seen documents indicating that two Garpiya-3s have already been delivered to Almaz-Antey in Russia via a Russian intermediary. The delivery dates were not known, so larger shipments may already have been made.
Winter Is Coming
Ukraine has beaten back waves of 400-600 Shaheds a month. Fighting off twice or three times that number with dwindling reserves of surface-to-air missiles will be a bigger challenge. The infrastructure has taken a pummeling over the last two and a half years, and further intense bombardment could tear holes in it.
Greater discrimination is important. If the defenders can separate the smaller Gerbera and Italmas they can concentrate their efforts on the real threat. And if new FPV interceptor drones, which have been effective against Russian reconnaissance drones, prove effective against Shaheds they will be a game changer.
Two things are clear. One is that Ukraine needs better air defenses, something the West can help with. Another is that no country, except possibly Israel, is ready for the sort of massed long-range drone barrage likely to feature in any future war anywhere in the world.
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